Markets Break Out: With Less Room for Error 15/09/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The major indexes capped off a strong week. Notably, the Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high, climbing 2% to notch its second consecutive week of gains. The S&P 500 advanced 1.6%, marking its best weekly showing since early August, while the Dow secured its first positive week in three.
• The solid rally followed fresh economic reports indicating a softening job market and subdued inflation, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve will trim interest rates when it wraps up its meeting on Wednesday. Markets were recently pricing in a 96% probability of a quarter-point rate cut, with only a slim 3.6% chance of a larger half-point reduction, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. On Monday, the Empire State Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones projecting a 4.5 reading — a sharp drop from the prior 11.9.

Markets Break Out: With Less Room for Error

• Stocks pushed to record highs on a wave of cautious optimism. but some wonder if bullishness is edging toward excess. Since August’s weak jobs report, markets have bet that the Fed will soon cut rates, not out of economic urgency but as a “good news” policy move. This narrative has supported a broad rally: momentum stocks cooled, lagging sectors caught up, volatility stayed low, and the S&P 500 has stretched its run without a major pullback. Recent inflation and jobs data reinforced expectations for easier Fed policy. Credit markets show little stress, gold’s surge is seen as diversification, and Treasurys’ rally to five-month-low yields looks justified. Yet risks of a stagflation mix, sticky inflation plus slowing growth, remain on investors’ radar.
•  The S&P 500’s breakout was broad, led by cyclicals, echoing 1990s soft-landing patterns when rate cuts near highs preceded strong returns. But valuations are rich: even the “other 493 S&P stocks now trade at 20x forward earnings, and while bulls argue profits and balance sheets support it, upside may be limited. With indexes stretched and the Fed poised to cut, the rally earns the benefit of the doubt,  though less margin for error leaves room for disappointment.

Stocks on the move:

• Tesla (TSLA): Shares of the EV maker climbed 6%, building on recent momentum. The stock is now up nearly 12% over the past week despite no fresh company updates. Investors appear optimistic that declining interest rates could ease financing costs for potential buyers.
• Joby Aviation (JOBY): The eVTOL aircraft developer gained 2% after announcing it will take part in a White House–backed pilot program highlighting applications for the technology.
• IonQ (IONQ): The quantum computing firm surged 15% after securing U.K. regulatory approval to acquire Oxford Ionics. The company also highlighted its M&A strategy during an analyst event. The news lifted peers, with Quantum Computing (QUBT) up 5% and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) advancing 12%.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI): The AI hardware company rose 3% after beginning large-scale shipments of its Nvidia Blackwell Ultra systems to customers worldwide.

Watchlist: TSLA, SMCI, IONQ, RGTI, NVDA, RBLX

Today’s action

• China’s economic slowdown worsened in August as a series of key data points fell short of forecasts, with sluggish domestic demand and Beijing’s clampdown on industrial overcapacity weighing on output. In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi climbed to a record in early trading, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.16%. Markets in Japan and Malaysia were closed for a holiday.
• In the U.S., stock futures were steady Sunday evening after the Nasdaq Composite notched another all-time high, with investors awaiting this week’s pivotal Federal Reserve meeting. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 25 points, or 0.05%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each increased by 0.05%. On Monday, the Empire State Manufacturing Index is set for release.

Bitcoin

• Native Markets secured the USDH stablecoin ticker, while Pakistan opened licensing for global crypto firms under PVARA. A Bitcoin (BTC $115,500) whale who swapped $4B into Ether last month resumed selling as BTC briefly crossed $116K. Two long-dormant wallets also moved 1,176 BTC ($136M) to an exchange.
• Bitcoin held steady over the past day, trading around $115.5K and struggling to break above $116K. A Bitcoin (BTC $115,500) whale who swapped $4 billion into Ether last month resumed selling as BTC briefly crossed $ 116,000. Two long-dormant wallets also moved 1,176 BTC ($136M) to an exchange, Bitcoin held flat over the past day, trading around $115.5 and struggling to break above $116K.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99 000-125 000, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 160-214

Forex

• The Japanese Yen is steady against a weaker US Dollar but stays locked in a month-long range as uncertainty over Bank of Japan rate hikes and strong risk appetite limit safe-haven demand. Political developments in Japan may further delay tightening, while Fed rate-cut bets keep the dollar under pressure and weigh on USD/JPY.
• The euro slipped near 1.1730 after Fitch downgraded France’s credit rating amid political tensions. Traders now look to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech and the Fed’s policy decision Wednesday, with markets expecting the first U.S. rate cut since December.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1700, USD/JPY: 140-151

Basic Materials

• Gold (XAU/USD) reversed early Asian session losses near $3,626 and trades at the upper end of its recent range, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations and safe-haven demand from geopolitical risks. Traders remain cautious ahead of this week’s FOMC decision, which will be key for USD moves and gold’s next direction.
• WTI crude rose 0.5% to around $62.65–$62.70 in Asia but stays stuck in a week-long range just above last week’s three-month low. Geopolitical tensions provide some support, though demand concerns and oversupply worries continue to cap gains.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-3700, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Empire State Manufacturing Index

Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open):

HAIN             The Hain Celestial Group
AMC (After Market Close): RLGT, PLAY



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!