CPI set to test the rally 11/09/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The S&P 500 recorded its second consecutive all-time high, propelled by Oracle’s remarkable rally. The Nasdaq Composite finished just above flat, while the Dow Jones slipped more than 200 points. Oracle shares soared 36 %, their strongest daily performance since 1992, after the company delivered a bullish forecast for its cloud business. The move was also seen as a positive signal for the broader artificial intelligence theme, with related stocks such as Broadcom, AMD, and Micron climbing in sympathy.
• On the macro front, the PPI dipped in August, easing after July’s steepest jump in three years. The softer-than-expected reading reinforced investor expectations that the Fed may proceed with rate cuts. Meanwhile, Klarna (KLAR) made its market debut, surging as much as 32 percent before settling with a 14 percent gain at $ 45 per share, giving the Swedish fintech a valuation of around $ 32 billion.

Market extra: CPI in focus

• Thursday’s August CPI is seen as the key test for markets. A rate cut next week looks locked in after weaker jobs data and softer PPI, but the size and path of future easing depend on CPI. Economists expect headline inflation to rise to 2.9% YoY, with core steady at 3.1%. The risk lies in core services (housing, transport, medical), which could keep inflation sticky and temper the Fed’s enthusiasm for more cuts. 
• Despite these risks, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new highs on Wednesday, indicating that investors remain confident in the Fed's ability to deliver. Traders warn, however, that a hot CPI print could spark a sharp shakeout before rate cuts arrive. Economists’ consensus doesn’t ensure accuracy; recession forecasts for 2023 famously proved wrong. And if Trump ever did push Solomon out, “DJ D-Sol” could still spin records.

Stocks on the move:

• Broadcom (AVGO): The semiconductor giant advanced over 9 percent as investors viewed Oracle’s strong outlook as a positive signal for Broadcom’s growth prospects.
• Joby Aviation (JOBY): The stock edged 1 percent higher after Uber announced plans to launch Blade helicopter services in 2026, supported by an expanded collaboration with Joby.
• Trade Desk (TTD): Shares slipped 8.8 percent after Morgan Stanley cut its rating to equal weight from overweight, citing worries over execution challenges and rising competition.
• Bill Holdings (BILL): The stock climbed 3 percent following a Reuters report that activist investor Starboard Value has nominated four directors, including one of its partners, to the company’s board.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM): Shares rose more than 4 percent after the firm reported August revenue of NT$335.77 billion, up 33.8 percent from a year earlier.

Watchlist: AVGO, ORCL, NVDA, TSM, BILL, KR, CMCM, KLAR 

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific equities advanced on Wednesday, echoing Wall Street’s gains as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut strengthened and investors parsed China's August inflation figures. On the mainland, the CSI 300 added 0.21 percent to finish at 4,445.36, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 1.04 percent and the Hang Seng Tech gauge gained 1.82 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 0.87 percent to close at a record 43,837.67.
• In U.S. trading, S&P 500 futures were little changed Wednesday night after the index’s fresh all-time high, while Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up 0.1 percent and Dow futures rose 35 points, or 0.08 percent. Market participants are also watching for weekly jobless claims and federal budget data due Thursday, with Kroger set to report results before the open and Adobe after the close.

Bitcoin

• Today, in the digital assets space, the Polygon Foundation announced that it has restored consensus and finality after a software glitch temporarily knocked some nodes out of sync. U.S. SEC Chair Paul Atkins also commented on Project Crypto, adding to the regulatory spotlight.
• Despite lingering bearish sentiment, several analysts suggest the weakness may be temporary. Bitcoin jumped above 114,000 dollars after softer-than-expected U.S. PPI data strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to show volatility around such policy shifts before resuming its upward trajectory.
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–124,800 | ETH: 4,000–4,800 | SOL: 200–220

Forex

• The yen extended its consolidation against the dollar, held back by domestic political uncertainty and a risk-on tone that reduces demand for safe havens. Diverging Fed-BoJ policy paths keep USD/JPY supported.
• The EUR/USD traded near 1.1700 in Asia as traders awaited the ECB's decision, where rates are expected to remain at 2.15 percent. Softer U.S. PPI reinforced Fed cut bets, capping dollar strength.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1700 | USD/JPY: 140–150

Basic Materials

• WTI crude traded near 63.50 dollars in early Asian hours Thursday, extending its three-day advance as geopolitical risks intensified after Poland intercepted drones. Gains were tempered by EIA data showing a 3.9 million barrel build in U.S. inventories for the week ending September 5.
• Gold edged lower after Wednesday’s rise, pressured by a firmer dollar and improved risk appetite in equities. Still, expectations of a Fed rate cut next week may limit downside and keep the metal supported ahead of U.S. CPI data.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,700 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

08:30 am: USD Core CPI, CPI
08:30 am: USD Unemployment Claims
02:00 pm: USD Federal Budget Balance



Earnings:

KR                        Kroger Company
CMCM                  Cheetah Mobile

AMC (After Market Close): ADBE, RH



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!