Bears circle, Bulls hold the line 08/09/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• Markets sank on Friday following a weaker-than-anticipated employment report. Labor Day turned into a signal of troubling labor-market data. The jobless rate climbed as expected, but hiring came in far below forecasts, and June’s gains were revised into losses—the first monthly payroll decline since 2020. Economists rushed into full-blown rate-cut speculation, with a September 17th cut now fully priced in. Barclays projects three reductions this year, in October and December.
• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted that soft labor conditions make it easier to justify easing, but cautioned that inflationary pressures are also building. Meanwhile, gold and bitcoin surged, and 30-year mortgage rates experienced their sharpest single-day drop in a year. Tech stocks slipped after the president flagged looming semiconductor tariffs, though Broadcom’s strong results helped buoy the Nasdaq 100.

Bears circle, Bulls hold the line

• A weak jobs report dragged payroll growth to pre-recession levels, Nvidia has slipped 8% below its 50-day average, Bitcoin’s off 10% from August, and hot IPOs like Figma and Chime are down 40–60%. September’s seasonality and stretched valuations add to the gloom.
• Yet the bull market is only cooling, not breaking. The S&P 500 is up 10% this year and near records. Friday’s jobs miss cemented expectations of a Fed cut next week, fueling a Treasury rally and rotation into housing, small caps, and Broadcom, which posted blowout results. Growth worries are rising, BofA now sees two cuts in 2024, but demographics mean fewer hires are needed to keep unemployment steady. Valuations remain a cap, with the S&P stalling near a 22.5 P/E. Still, history favors stocks when the Fed resumes easing.

Stocks on the move:

• Campbell Soup (CPB): Shares extended their rally following Wednesday’s quarterly release, rising more than 3% and bringing week-to-date gains to nearly 6%. Still, the stock remains down 19% year-to-date as tariff-driven cost pressures continue to cloud the profit outlook.
• Caleres (CAL): The Dr. Scholl’s parent company leapt 9%. No clear catalyst was evident, though the surge followed Thursday’s nearly 5% drop after posting mixed second-quarter results.
• Broadcom (AVGO): The semiconductor giant soared 9% after topping estimates on both revenue and earnings for the third fiscal quarter, while disclosing that AI-related sales jumped 63%.
• Lululemon Athletica (LULU): The athleisure retailer plunged 18% after issuing a full-year outlook that missed expectations. EPS guidance of $12.77 to $12.97 trailed analysts’ $14.45 forecast, and projected revenue also fell short.
• Tesla (TSLA): The EV maker advanced 2.8% after a proxy filing revealed a new incentive package for CEO Elon Musk. If performance milestones are hit, Musk could secure over 423 million additional shares, further expanding his ownership stake.

Watchlist: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, TSLA, AAPL, META, RBLX

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific equities mostly advanced Monday as traders weighed Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s weekend resignation and awaited key regional economic releases. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.5% after Ishiba stepped down under sustained pressure following last year’s election defeat, while the Topix gained 1% to notch a record high. In China, exports to the U.S. plunged 33% in August, dragging overall export growth to a six-month low.
• U.S. stock futures were little changed Sunday as investors braced for a data-heavy week featuring two closely watched inflation reports. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped 18 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures edged down 0.09%, while Nasdaq 100 futures also slipped. Traders are looking to the data for clues on the economy’s durability and whether record-high equities can extend gains.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin whales have unloaded roughly $12.7 billion worth of BTC in the past month, a wave of selling that analysts warn could keep prices under pressure in the coming weeks. “The drawdown by major Bitcoin players is accelerating, marking the largest token distribution so far this year,” CryptoQuant analyst caueconomy noted Friday. 
• Over the last 30 days, whale holdings have shrunk by more than 100,000 BTC (BTC $110,932), highlighting rising risk aversion among big investors. This persistent selloff has been “weighing heavily on price structure,” dragging Bitcoin below $108,000.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99 000-125 000, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 160-214
   

Forex

• EUR/USD is steady near 1.1710 in Monday’s late Asian trade, with investors cautious ahead of France’s confidence vote later in the day. Market focus this week also centers on the ECB’s policy decision, while weak U.S. labor demand continues to weigh on the Dollar.
• Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) started the week on the back foot amid political turmoil after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation over the weekend. The uncertainty could complicate the BoJ’s policy normalization outlook. Although JPY has recovered slightly from session lows, a risk-on mood and rising Fed rate-cut bets are capping upside for USD/JPY.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1700, USD/JPY: 140-151

Basic Materials

• Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating just below the $3,600 record high hit Friday, pausing last week’s strong rally. A mild USD rebound, after sliding to its lowest since late July on weak jobs data—along with firmer equity sentiment, is capping near-term upside. Still, rising Fed rate cut bets continue to underpin the non-yielding metal.
• WTI crude (CL) climbed back toward $62.15 in Monday’s Asian session, breaking a three-day losing streak. The rebound follows OPEC+’s decision to raise October output by a modest 137,000 bpd amid weaker demand expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions linger, with Trump voicing dissatisfaction over the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-3650, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

03:00 pm: USD Consumer Credit


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open):

No major earnings today



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!