Bulls charge higher, PCE test ahead 29/08/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• It was a positive trading day, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.3% to close at 6,501.86, its first finish above the 6,500 threshold. Earlier in the session, the broad benchmark touched a record intraday peak. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher by roughly 0.2%. The Dow’s close at 45,636.90 marked another all-time high.
•  Stronger-than-forecast earnings from Nvidia bolstered investor confidence in the resilience of the AI-driven rally. On the macro side, developments such as EU tariff reductions and the pending removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, subject to a court review on Friday, kept traders on alert. In economic data, preliminary GDP expanded at a robust 3.3% annualized pace in Q2, driven by solid household spending. Net exports also contributed, as businesses sharply reduced their imports, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Tariff pressures test Fed’s Rate-Cut Plans

• Tariff pressures are pushing U.S. inflation higher just as growth shows signs of slowing. July’s core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred gauge, is expected to rise 0.3%, lifting the annual rate to 2.9%, the highest since February and the third straight increase. Comerica’s Bill Adams noted tariffs are now fully filtering from ports to store shelves, while July’s PPI hinted at service-sector inflation beyond tariff effects. 
• The sting may be softened by Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, where he emphasized job risks over inflation, signaling a likely September rate cut. Still, economists caution that persistent price pressures could limit additional easing later this year. On the spending side, July consumption is expected to rise 0.5%, buoyed by auto sales, but this increase is unlikely to be sustained as wage growth lags and higher prices pinch budgets.

Stocks on the move:

• Ulta Beauty (ULTA): Shares of the cosmetics and beauty retailer jumped nearly 6% after the company lifted its full-year profit and sales outlook. Ulta now projects annual revenue between $12.0 billion and $12.1 billion, above analysts’ consensus of $11.7 billion. Full-year EPS guidance was set at $23.85 to $24.30, versus expectations of $23.65.
• Ambarella (AMBA): The chip designer soared almost 19% after issuing third-quarter revenue guidance of $100 million to $108 million, topping Wall Street’s forecast of $91 million. Ambarella also exceeded analyst projections on both earnings and revenue for Q2.
• Affirm Holdings (AFRM): The buy-now-pay-later fintech surged 9% as fiscal Q4 results beat expectations. Affirm reported EPS of $0.20 on revenue of $876 million, ahead of the consensus for $0.11 per share on $837 million.
• Dell Technologies (DELL): Shares fell around 4% even as the PC maker posted stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings of $2.32 per share on revenue of $29.78 billion (consensus: $2.30 and $29.17 billion). Weaker-than-forecast margins and softer performance in storage, client solutions, and commercial segments weighed on sentiment.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL): The semiconductor name slid more than 8% after guiding Q3 revenue to $2.06 billion, shy of analysts’ $2.11 billion forecast.

Watchlist: AFRM, AMBA, DELL, ULTA, NVDA, MRVL, S, ADSK, TTD

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Friday, diverging from Wall Street as investors weighed regional economic data. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.41% and the Topix slipped 0.39% after Tokyo’s core inflation eased in August, while the nation’s jobless rate ticked down to 2.3% in July from 2.5% a month earlier. South Korea’s Kospi edged lower by 0.22%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.51% and China’s CSI 300 inched up 0.13%.
• In U.S. markets, Dow futures dipped 62 points (-0.1%), with S&P 500 futures down 0.07% and Nasdaq 100 futures off 0.09%. Attention now turns to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge,  the PCE index, which is due later on Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect July’s report to show a 0.2% monthly rise and a 2.6% annual increase.

Bitcoin

• Today in crypto: The U.S. Treasury’s FinCEN has disclosed that American banks have been channeling billions of dollars annually to suspected Chinese money launderers. At the same time, the CFTC outlined a framework allowing offshore exchanges to serve U.S. clients legally. Meanwhile, Kanye West’s YZY token collapsed more than 80% post-launch, erasing about $74 million for 51,000 traders.
• Bitcoin (BTC $111,126) sits 12% below its all-time high, but an oversold STH-MVRV metric points to a potential breakout toward $260,000. Analysts note BTC’s bullish megaphone pattern across multiple time frames, suggesting a cycle range of $144,000–$260,000. Signs of stress from short-term holders could also mark a local bottom, adding conviction to the bullish case.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99 000-125 000, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 160-214
   

Forex

• EUR/USD extended losses into Friday’s Asian session, slipping to 1.1660 after three straight declines. Traders turned cautious ahead of Germany’s July retail sales and August preliminary CPI later in the day, while attention will shift to the U.S. July PCE inflation report in the North American session. Sentiment was further pressured after U.S. Vice President Vance confirmed the end of the Fed’s autonomy, deepening policy concerns.
• USD/JPY eased to 146.85 as the yen firmed following Tokyo’s August core CPI, which rose 2.5% YoY, in line with forecasts. U.S. data showing Q2 GDP growth at 3.3% annualized offered some support for the dollar, though focus remains on the upcoming PCE inflation release.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1700, USD/JPY: 140-151

Basic Materials

• WTI crude (CL) slipped to $63.85 in early Asian trade on Friday, pressured by concerns about oversupply and reports that the U.S. is urging India to curb Russian oil imports. The downside came despite EIA data showing a 2.4 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories last week.
• Gold (XAU/USD) edged lower in early European hours, pulling back from a five-week high near $3,425. Profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the metal, though expectations for Fed rate cuts could cushion losses. Solid U.S. economic readings, including Q2 GDP at 3.3% and lower jobless claims, added support to the greenback ahead of Friday’s July PCE inflation release.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-3500, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
08:30 am: USD Core PCE Price Index
08:30 am: USD Goods Trade Balance
09:45 am: USD Chicago PMI
10:00 am: USD Consumer Sentiment
10:00 am: USD Inflation Expectations
 

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens):

BABA                Alibaba  Group
FRO                  Frontline Plc.
LOT                   Lotus Technology
AMC (After the US Market closes): Enjoy your weekend!

 

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!