Market Rally hinges on Nvidia earnings 27/08/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The Trump administration continues to pursue options to dismiss Fed official Lisa Cook over unproven mortgage fraud claims that have yet to be tested in court. The president stated that if Cook is removed, he’ll have the necessary support to push for rate cuts. Cook, however, said she is filing a lawsuit and has no plans to step down.
• Cabinet officials also indicated they are weighing additional equity purchases, this time in defense firms. The benchmark S&P 500 gained 0.41%, closing at 6,465.94. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite rose 0.44% to finish at 21,544.27, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 135.60 points, or 0.30%, ending the session at 45,418.07.

Market Rally hinges on Nvidia earnings

• Wall Street will turn its attention to Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, seen as a key gauge for both the stock market and the broader AI rally. Analysts expect the chipmaker to post $46.05 billion in revenue and $1.01 a share in profit, with data-center sales up 57% to $41.34 billion, though slower than last quarter’s 73% pace. The report comes amid escalating U.S.–China tech tensions, with Nvidia halting H20 chip production after Washington moved to claim 15% of its China sales and Beijing urged firms to avoid the processors.
• Still, analysts see up to $6 billion in potential H20-related revenue and forecast future double-digit growth in China. Beyond geopolitics, investors will focus on whether demand can keep outpacing supply as global data-center projects and hyperscaler spending expand, with Nvidia’s Blackwell chips ramping and its Rubin line slated for 2026. Despite concentration risks, 30% of recent revenue came from just two customers, analysts expect hyperscalers to maintain aggressive AI investments, making Wednesday’s results a critical test of momentum.

Stocks on the move:

• MongoDB (MDB): The developer data platform surged more than 21% after delivering results that surpassed Wall Street’s projections. MongoDB posted adjusted earnings of $1 per share on revenue of $591 million, topping forecasts of 66 cents per share on $556 million in revenue, according to LSEG.
• PVH (PVH): Shares of the apparel group advanced 5% following stronger-than-expected quarterly results. PVH reported adjusted earnings of $2.52 per share on $2.17 billion in revenue for its fiscal second quarter, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.01 per share on $2.12 billion in sales.
• Okta (OKTA): The identity-management software company climbed more than 4% after issuing both earnings and guidance that outpaced consensus expectations. Okta recorded adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share on revenue of $728 million, ahead of forecasts for 84 cents per share on $712 million. CEO Todd McKinnon told CNBC the results were “much better than we thought.”
• UnitedHealth (UNH): The health insurer slipped slightly in after-hours trading following a Bloomberg report that the Department of Justice is examining its prescription management operations. The probe is separate from the Medicare billing investigation the company disclosed in July.

Watchlist: NVDA, AAPL, UNH, OKTA, MDB, PVH, KSS, BOX, WSM

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific equities were mixed on Wednesday, diverging from Wall Street, as traders weighed fresh data from China showing industrial profits fell 1.5% year over year in July, a marked improvement after months of sharper declines. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.27%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 inched slightly higher. Meanwhile, steep U.S. tariffs on India are set to take effect.
• In U.S. markets, stock futures ticked up Tuesday evening ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report, viewed as a potential turning point for the current bull run. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 29 points, or 0.06%, S&P 500 futures advanced 0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 0.1%. No major economic releases are scheduled for today.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin (BTC $111,641) entered the final week of August well below its record highs, with traders showing renewed caution. A sharp long-position liquidation pushed prices back toward $110,000, creating a fresh CME gap that bulls hope to reclaim.
• Meanwhile, whale activity is drawing attention after a large rotation from BTC into Ethereum, while smaller holders continue steady accumulation, according to analysts. The latest price swings have fueled speculation that the broader bull market may be nearing exhaustion. Adding to the uncertainty, markets await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge later this week as expectations for rate cuts intensify.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99 000-125 000, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 160-214

Forex

• USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to trade just below 148.00 in Wednesday’s late Asian session, as the yen lagged its major peers ahead of Tokyo CPI data due Friday. Economists expect core inflation, excluding fresh food, to rise 2.5% year-on-year in August. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar held steady after Fed Governor Lisa Cook announced a lawsuit to contest efforts to remove her from office.
• EUR/USD, by contrast, slipped toward 1.1630 as renewed political uncertainty in France pressured the euro, with Prime Minister François Bayrou facing the risk of a no-confidence vote on September 9. While Cook’s possible ousting has clouded the longer-term outlook for the greenback, near-term sentiment favored dollar strength against the euro.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1700, USD/JPY: 140-151

Basic Materials

• Gold  edged lower in early European trade on Wednesday, pulling back from a two-week high near $3,395 as profit-taking and a modest U.S. dollar rebound weighed on prices. Still, downside risks may be limited by renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, with President Donald Trump intensifying efforts to remove a Fed governor—an uncertainty that could bolster demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
• WTI crude steadied around $63.10 after a 2% drop in the prior session, as traders turned cautious ahead of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports, set to double to 50% at 04:01 GMT Wednesday. Russia’s move to lift August crude exports from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day versus its initial plan also added to market watch factors.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-3500, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

10:30 am: USD Crude Oil Inventories
Tentative: USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
 

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens):

RY                       Royal Bank of Canada
WSM                   Williams-Sonoma Inc.
AMC (After the US Market closes): NVDA, CRWD, SNOW, HPQ

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!