Wall Street eyes Nvidia, retail and inflation 25/08/2025

HOT stories for today


 

US market wrap:

• U.S. equities surged Friday, buoyed by growing expectations of interest-rate cuts after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a more dovish stance during his remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared to a new record, while the S&P 500 closed just shy of its all-time high set on Aug. 14 at 6,468.54. The late-week rally pushed the broad index into positive territory for the week. At the closing bell, the S&P 500 gained 1.5%, the Dow leapt 1.9% while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.9%. Powell’s speech fueled optimism that the central bank could lower borrowing costs as early as September, reversing recent pressure on stocks.
• Earlier in the week, equities had wavered as investors pared back exposure to heavyweight technology names. For the week, the S&P 500 eked out a 0.3% gain, while the Dow added 1.5%, marking a third consecutive week of advances for both benchmarks, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The tech-focused Nasdaq, however, slipped 0.6% over the same stretch. Looking ahead, traders are turning their attention to Friday’s release of the July personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, as well as Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report, both seen as pivotal drivers for market sentiment in the days ahead.

Wall Street Eyes Nvidia, Retail and Inflation

• Wall Street is weighing the growth prospects of the so-called Magnificent Seven as they pour billions into artificial intelligence, even as questions persist over whether businesses and consumers will pay for the technology. The spotlight this week falls on Nvidia, which reports earnings Wednesday. Analysts remain upbeat on AI demand, though concerns linger about supply bottlenecks and rising U.S.-China tensions.
• Washington recently cleared Nvidia to sell modified AI chips to China, but Beijing has discouraged local firms from using them, underscoring the geopolitical risks. Retailers are also in focus after Walmart’s rare profit miss and a leadership shake-up at Target. This week, chains ranging from apparel to home goods and discount outlets will report results, offering a snapshot of consumer spending as shoppers balance inflation pressures with a hunt for value.

Stocks on the move:

• Semiconductors (SMH): Chipmakers surged in step with the broader market after signals the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates as soon as next month. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) advanced nearly 3%. Microchip Technology [MCHP] rallied about 6%, ON Semiconductor [ON] jumped more than 5%, Nvidia [NVDA] climbed roughly 2%, and Broadcom [AVGO] added 3%.
• Caterpillar [CAT]: Shares of the heavy-equipment manufacturer rose about 4%, propelling the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record high. Optimism over Fed rate cuts in September fueled bets on stronger commercial and industrial demand. The S&P 500 industrials sector outperformed midday, up 2% versus a 1.6% gain for the broader index.
• Goldman Sachs [GS], American Express [AXP]: Financials gained 1.7% on expectations of lower borrowing costs. Goldman Sachs rose 3.7% and American Express jumped 4%. Regional banks rallied as well, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) soaring more than 4%.
• Intuit [INTU]: The stock slid over 4%. Despite beating fourth-quarter earnings estimates, the financial software company issued softer-than-anticipated revenue guidance for the current quarter.

Today’s action:
 

• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 2.1%, nearing a four-year high. Property developers paced the advance, with one major name surging 8.2%, another climbing 6%, and a third rising nearly 6%. 
• In the U.S., equity futures hovered near the flatline following last week’s rally that carried the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fresh intraday and closing records. Investors are now bracing for Nvidia’s earnings midweek. Early Monday, Dow futures slipped 53 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures edged down 0.09% and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.1%. On the economic front, traders await the release of new home sales data at 10 a.m. ET.

                                          Watchlist: PDD, NVDA, CAT, JPM, GS, INTU, SPOT, RDDT


Bitcoin:

• Ethereum (ETH) soared to a fresh all‑time high above $4,945, fueled by strong buying momentum and dwindling exchange supply, a setup analysts flag as a potential “supply shock,” where scarcer tokens drive higher bids. Institutional inflows remain robust, with Ethereum ETFs attracting substantial capital and fueling momentum
• Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $113,000, trading near $112,935, down about 1.85% in the last 24 hours. Despite this short-term pullback, long-term bullish sentiment endures, with projections ranging from $200,000 to $225,000 by year-end, though some analysts warn of cyclical limits.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 78,000–125,000,  Ethereum: 4,600–5,000,  Solana: 200–215

Forex:

• USD/JPY ticked up to 147.40 in Asian hours Monday after a 1% slide Friday. Gains may be capped as the yen strengthens on hawkish signals from BoJ Governor Ueda, who said conditions for another hike are falling into place. The dollar remains under pressure as markets price in a possible Fed rate cut in September, with Powell warning of labor-market risks.
• EUR/USD eased to 1.1700 after touching a four-week high of 1.1742 Friday. The euro’s pullback is limited by ongoing dollar weakness, while ECB’s Nagel stressed further cuts would require a major change in the eurozone outlook.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1600–1.1750, USD/JPY: 148–151

Basic Materials

• WTI crude gained traction near $63.40 in early Asian trading Monday, supported by fading hopes of a swift Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and reports of fresh drone strikes on Russian energy facilities. Traders now await Tuesday’s API weekly crude stock data for further direction.
• Gold (XAU/USD) slipped 0.2% to around $3,365, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar. Even so, expectations of a September Fed rate cut and heightened geopolitical tensions could help limit the downside. Focus later this week shifts to Thursday’s release of the U.S. Q2 GDP estimate.
  Watchlist: Gold: 3,000–3,430, WTI Crude: 60.00–68.00
  
  
  Key Economic Events Today (EST):
  
  10:00 am: USD New Home Sales
  03:15 pm: USD FOMC Member Logan Speaks
  
  
  Earnings Calendar:
  
  BMO (Before Market Open)
  
  PDD          PDD Holdings Inc.
  AMC (After Market Close): HEI, SMTC
  
  
  The TEFS Analyst Team wishes you a successful trading day!