CPI Countdown: Stocks brace for Stagflation Signals 11/08/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• Equities advanced on Friday, driven by the technology sector, as the major indexes closed the week with strong gains. The Nasdaq Composite surged 0.98% to a record high. The S&P 500 rose 0.78%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.47%. For the week, the indexes all finished higher, the 30-stock Dow climbed roughly 1.4%, the broad-based S&P 500 increased 2.4%, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.9%.
• Apple boosted both the S&P 500’s tech segment and the Nasdaq. Former President Trump cautioned U.S. courts on Friday against overturning his tariff measures, stating on Truth Social that if they did, “It would be 1929 all over again, a GREAT DEPRESSION.” According to the Financial Times, Nvidia and AMD will remit 15% of their China chip sales revenues to the U.S. government. Markets now turn their attention to key inflation data in the coming week.

CPI Countdown: Stocks brace for Stagflation Signals

• U.S. markets head into the week bracing for pivotal inflation data that could test their recent rebound. July’s consumer-price index, due Tuesday, will be closely watched for signs that tariffs are driving prices higher, with some analysts warning of stagflation, a combination of rising inflation and unemployment. “Hotter-than-expected inflation could knock stocks off their recent rebound,” said Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab.
• The market wrapped a strong recovery week, but a soft July jobs report has sharpened focus on CPI, as tariff concerns keep the Federal Reserve from cutting rates. Traders see an 89% chance of a quarter-point cut in September, with two to three reductions likely by year-end, according to CME FedWatch. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged tariffs’ impact on some prices but said the overall effect remains uncertain.

Stocks on the move:

• Piper Sandler Turns Bullish on Monster Beverage (MNST): Piper Sandler upgraded Monster Beverage to overweight from neutral and lifted its price target to $74 from $54, signaling nearly 22% potential upside from Thursday’s close. 
• Goldman Sachs Backs Peloton (PTON) After Strong Earnings: Goldman Sachs now sees more than 60% upside for Peloton following quarterly results that eased investor concerns.
• Trade Desk (TTD) Plunges on Downgrades Despite Earnings Beat: Shares tumbled 37% after multiple firms, including Bank of America and MoffettNathanson, cut ratings. While results exceeded expectations, CEO Jeff Green cautioned about slower Q3 revenue growth, citing tariff and inflation pressures on major brands.
• Gen Digital (GEN) Rallies on Robust Cybersecurity Demand: Stock jumped over 9% after fiscal Q1 results topped estimates. The company boosted its full-year revenue and profit outlook.
• Natera (NTRA) Surges on Revenue Beat and Upgraded Guidance:  Shares climbed about 11% after Q2 revenue surpassed the highest Wall Street estimate. Natera also raised full-year gross margin and sales forecasts above prior guidance and consensus projections.

Watchlist: TTD, PTON, MNST, AMD, NVDA, AAPL, RBLX, RUM, MSFT

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific equities traded cautiously on Monday as investors awaited an official decision on whether the Aug. 12 deadline for the U.S.–China tariff truce would be extended. Vietnam’s benchmark index reached a record high, while Indian markets edged up.
• In the U.S., stock futures ticked higher Sunday night, keeping the market within striking distance of all-time highs ahead of a pivotal week for inflation data. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 56 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each gained 0.1%. This week’s inflation readings could prove a key test for a broad market hovering near record territory. The consumer-price index, due Tuesday, and the producer-price index, set for release Thursday, will heavily influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision. Stronger-than-expected inflation could slow the market’s momentum.

Bitcoin

• Cryptocurrencies climbed Monday, with ether surging to $4,335.17, its highest level since late 2021, before easing to $4,308.98 as of 10:37 a.m. Singapore time (10:37 p.m. ET). The world’s second-largest token is up nearly 29% year-to-date. 
• Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, told CNBC that ether is Wall Street’s preferred crypto asset, citing its “zero downtime since inception” and status as “the most legally compliant and secure blockchain.” Bitcoin advanced 2.8% to $121,733, marking its highest price since July 14, according to LSEG data.
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–123,000 | ETH: 3,000–3,800 | SOL: 200–260

Forex

• EUR/USD rose to around 1.1650 in Asian trade on Monday, rebounding from prior losses as expectations grow that the ECB will halt easing in September. Improved sentiment on hopes for an end to the Ukraine–Russia war and softer U.S. data, boosting Fed rate cut bets, also supported the euro.
• USD/JPY held rangebound in holiday-thinned trading on Japan’s Mountain Day. Uncertainty over the BoJ’s next rate hike and political risks kept yen gains in check, while Fed rate cut expectations weighed on the dollar. The BoJ’s upgraded inflation forecast leaves the door open for further hikes.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1650 | USD/JPY: 140–162

Basic Materials

• Gold (XAU/USD) opened the week weaker, sliding toward $3,368 in Asian trade Monday as a positive risk tone pressured safe-haven assets. Rising Fed rate cut expectations spurred fresh U.S. dollar selling, limiting losses and helping bullion bounce modestly from intraday lows. Traders now await U.S. inflation data this week to gauge the metal’s near-term path.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell near $62.75 in early Asian trading, extending its steepest weekly loss since late June. Selling pressure was fueled by progress in U.S.–Russia talks to end the Ukraine war and worries over the economic hit from U.S. tariffs. Market focus shifts to Tuesday’s API crude inventory report.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,500 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

No major economic news


Earnings:

MNDY                  Monday.com Ltd.
RUM                    Rumble Inc.
B                          Barick Mining Corp.

AMC (After Market Close): OKLO, SBS, ACHR

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!