Trump’s stealth Tariffs shake Global Trade 01/08/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• Stocks are retreating after a subdued trading session, during which the S&P 500 recorded its third consecutive day of losses. Strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta Platforms weren’t enough to boost the broader market. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% by Thursday’s close, while the Nasdaq Composite edged slightly lower. Both indexes had touched intraday all-time highs earlier in the day, but the tech-driven surge lost steam. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, consisting of 30 blue-chip stocks, dropped roughly 330 points, or 0.7%. In after-hours trading, Amazon shares sank more than 6% after the company issued weaker-than-expected guidance for operating income this quarter.
• Meanwhile, Apple shares rose 2% following better-than-forecast earnings and revenue. Just hours before the August 1 deadline for “reciprocal” tariffs, President Donald Trump announced updated import duties ranging from 10% to 41%. Products rerouted to bypass tariffs will face an additional 40% surcharge, according to a White House statement.

Trump’s stealth Tariffs shake Global Trade

• President Trump quietly signed a new executive order Thursday, reviving “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%. Unlike April’s flashy rollout, this update arrived with no press event, just a stark PDF posted online. Some nations, such as Syria and Myanmar, now face tariffs as high as 41%, while others, including Thailand and Malaysia, have seen slight reductions. Goods rerouted to dodge duties will be hit with an extra 40% levy. Trump confirmed the Aug. 1 deadline “will not be extended,” though implementation starts Aug. 7 to allow for customs prep.
• Despite saying he’s open to deals, Trump suggested it’s “too late” to avoid this round. Analysts view the move as part of a broader shift, with fewer trade deals and more tariff leverage. U.S. tariff revenues have surged fourfold since last year. Markets took notice: Asian stocks dropped, and Comex copper plunged over 20%. Former trade officials warn more tariffs may follow, while China, not hit by this round, is likely to respond to provisions seen as aimed at its exports.

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Stocks on the move:

• Apple (AAPL): Shares rose 1% after Q3 results beat expectations. iPhone sales climbed 13% YoY, driving a 10% increase in total revenue,  the strongest since Dec. 2021. Revenue came in at $94.04B vs. $89.53B expected (LSEG); EPS was $1.57 vs. $1.43 forecast.
• Amazon (AMZN): Shares fell over 3% following a weak outlook. Q3 operating income is projected at $15.5B–$20.5B, compared to a $19.48 estimate (StreetAccount).
• First Solar (FSLR): Shares jumped 4% after beating on earnings and revenue. EPS was $3.18 (vs. $2.65 est.), and revenue hit $1.1B (vs. $1.03B est., LSEG). The firm has faced tariff-related headwinds this year.
• Reddit (RDDT): Stock soared 14% after Q2 earnings of $0.45 per share on $500M revenue, well above estimates of $0.19 and $426M (LSEG). Q3 guidance also topped expectations.
• Coinbase (COIN): Shares dropped over 6% after missing on Q2 revenue, reporting $1.50B vs. $1.60B expected (LSEG). Retail trading volume also fell short at $43B vs. $48.05B (StreetAccount).

Watchlist: AMZN, AAPL, RDDT, CLX, FSLR, COIN,  XOM, CVX

Today’s action

• Asian tech shares mostly declined as investors absorbed U.S. tech earnings. China’s factory activity contracted, per Caixin PMI. The CSI 300 was flat as of 10:02 a.m. local time, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.16%. South Korean markets dropped over 2%.
• U.S. futures edged lower early Friday following Trump’s tariff revisions and Big Tech earnings. S&P 500 futures fell 0.16%, Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.23%, and Dow futures slid 67 points (0.15%). Markets are also eyeing July’s jobs report, expected at 8:30 a.m. ET, which may show a slowing labor market, with payrolls up 100,000 and unemployment rising to 4.2%. Despite recent volatility, July closed on a high note: the S&P 500 rose 2.2%, the Nasdaq climbed 3.7%, and the Dow edged up 0.1%.

Bitcoin 

• Bitcoin drops below $115K as Trump’s tariff move shakes investor confidence. Bitcoin fell to a three-week low of $114,250 on Coinbase during early Asian trading on Friday, after President Trump issued an executive order imposing new trade tariffs on multiple countries.
•  The announcement triggered a sell-off across both equity and crypto markets. Although the dip is modest, it marks Bitcoin’s lowest point since June 11. Still, the asset notched a strong performance in July, closing the month with its highest-ever monthly candle.
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–123,000 | ETH: 3,000–3,800 | SOL: 200–260

Forex

• EUR/USD holds near 1.1420 during Friday’s Asian session, as traders await the Eurozone HICP and U.S. NFP reports. The U.S. Dollar firmed after the PCE report suggested the Fed may delay rate cuts until October. Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in the near term.
• The Japanese Yen hit a four-month low, pressured by the BoJ’s cautious stance despite upgraded inflation forecasts. Governor Ueda’s dovish tone and domestic political uncertainty continue to weigh on the currency. Fed rate cut bets fading also boost USD/JPY ahead of the NFP release.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1650 | USD/JPY: 140–162

Basic Materials

• Gold (XAU/USD) trades lower near $3,300 during Friday’s Asian session, struggling to build on modest overnight gains. A stronger U.S. Dollar, extending its rally to a seven-day streak, weighs on the metal as the Fed’s hawkish stance dampens demand. However, trade tensions offer some support, with focus now on the upcoming U.S. NFP report.
• WTI crude trades around $68.70, marking its second straight daily loss as demand concerns grow amid Trump’s new tariffs set to take effect on August 1. Despite the pressure, oil remains on track for a weekly gain of over 6%, fueled by ongoing supply worries.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,500 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

08:30 am: Non-Farm Employment Change
08:30 am: Unemployment Rate
09:45 am: Final Manufacturing PMI
10:00 am: ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices
10:00 am: Consumer sentiment
10:00 am: Inflation Expectations



Earnings:

XOM                    Exxon Mobile Corp.
CVX                    Chevron Corp.
LIN                      Linde Plc.
ENB                    Enbridge Inc.
CL                       Colgate-Palmolive

AMC (After Market Close): Enjoy your weekend!


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!