Markets eye Fed, GDP Data 30/07/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The S&P 500 ended Tuesday in the red as momentum in trade negotiations with China faded and investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision. The benchmark index declined by 0.30%, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.38%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 0.46%.
• Selling pressure accelerated in the final trading hour following news that U.S.-China trade talks concluded without extending the tariff pause, as Trump considers his next move. Markets also digested mixed earnings reports. Boeing shares dropped over 4%, despite reporting solid quarterly results. Meanwhile, attention turns to today’s key events: the Fed’s rate decision and GDP data, with Trump’s 50% copper tariff set to take effect Friday.

Dissent looms at Fed as Trump pushes for cuts

• The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday could bring a rare split in voting, but markets likely won’t react. While the Fed is almost certain to hold rates steady, speculation is growing that Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman might dissent and vote in favor of a cut. If so, it would be the first time since 1993 that two permanent FOMC members oppose the decision in the same meeting, and the first multiple dissent in over five years. Investors will likely view them as positioning moves, not true policy signals. 
• The twist? President Trump has been publicly pressuring Chair Jerome Powell to lower rates, raising concerns that any dissenting votes could be interpreted as politically motivated, especially as both Waller and Bowman are seen as potential successors to Powell, whose term ends in May Despite the political drama, the Fed under Powell has been notably unified, and this meeting is unlikely to shift that perception, no matter the headlines.

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Stocks on the move:

• Starbucks (SBUX): Shares climbed 3% in after-hours trading as fiscal Q3 revenue topped expectations, coming in at $9.46 billion versus the $9.31 billion forecast by LSEG. However, same-store sales declined for the sixth straight quarter.
• Visa (V): The stock slipped 3% despite the company reaffirming its full-year 2025 guidance for low double-digit revenue growth. The financial services giant also beat earnings and revenue forecasts for fiscal Q3.
• Teladoc Health (TDOC): Shares advanced over 4% after the company reported a smaller-than-expected Q2 loss of 19 cents per share, compared to analysts’ estimate of a 26-cent loss. Revenue also exceeded forecasts at $631.9 million, beating the $622.6 million consensus from FactSet.
• Qorvo (QRVO): The semiconductor manufacturer surged more than 8% following an upbeat fiscal Q2 forecast, projecting $2.00 EPS on $1.025 billion in revenue, well above estimates of $1.61 EPS and $957 million. Q1 results also beat expectations.

Watchlist: SBUX, V, QRVO, TDOC, CZR, UBS, MSFT, META

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Wednesday after U.S.–China talks in Sweden ended without a tariff truce extension. A final decision on delaying higher tariffs awaits President Trump’s approval. Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened flat, Topix edged up 0.1%, Kospi rose 0.48%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.74%.
• S&P 500 futures hovered near flat Tuesday night after the index snapped its record-setting win streak. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%, while Dow futures slipped by 23 points. Today’s spotlight is on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, GDP data, and a packed earnings lineup, including Etsy (ETSY) before the bell, and Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Ford (F), and Robinhood (HOOD) after the close.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $117,786 on Tuesday, staying within its recent $117,000–$120,000 range and heading for a potential daily close below $118,000. Markets are now focused on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and a long-anticipated White House report on U.S. crypto policy and the possibility of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
• The report is expected to disclose how much Bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds, and traders are watching for signals that President Trump may take steps toward formalizing such a reserve. Meanwhile, the Samourai Wallet co-founders are reportedly set to plead guilty to U.S. charges, adding legal pressure to the privacy-focused crypto space.
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–123,000 | ETH: 3,000–3,800 | SOL: 200–260

Forex

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) bounced back from a one-week low against the U.S. Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s Asian session as the greenback softened. However, gains may be limited amid low expectations for a BoJ rate hike and broader trade optimism. Traders are also likely to stay cautious ahead of today’s Fed policy decision.
• Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair climbed to around 1.1560, snapping a four-day losing streak. The upside may be capped ahead of key events, including Eurozone and German Q2 GDP data, and the Fed’s rate announcement. Markets are also watching for progress on U.S. trade deals before the August 1 deadline set by President Trump.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1650 | USD/JPY: 140–162

Basic Materials

• WTI crude climbed to around $68.75 in early Asian trading on Wednesday, its highest level in over a month, supported by supply concerns. Despite a 1.539 million barrel inventory build reported by the API, fears of tighter global supply are keeping prices elevated.
• Gold (XAU/USD) hovered near $3,325, fluctuating between slight gains and losses. A mild USD pullback and market caution ahead of the Fed's rate decision are offering some support, but hawkish expectations and trade optimism are capping upside momentum.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,500 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

08:15 am: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
08:30 am: Advanced GDP
10:00 am: Pending Home Sales
10:30 am: Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 pm: Federal Funds Rate
02:30 pm: FOMC Press Conference


Earnings:

ADP               Automatic Data Processing
UBS               UBS AG
TT                  Trane Technologies

AMC (After Market Close): MSFT, META, QCOM, ARM, HOOD


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!