EU Deal done, China next 28/07/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• On Friday, all three major stock indexes ended both the day and the week on a positive note. The blue-chip Dow Jones advanced by 0.47%, while the broad-based S&P 500 added 0.40%, closing at 6,388.64, its fifth straight record finish and the 14th all-time high so far this year. The tech-centric Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.24%. Investor optimism remained high, driven by a strong wave of earnings surprises, encouraging progress in U.S.-Japan trade talks, upbeat capital expenditure forecasts, and a bullish "AI Action Plan."
• On Sunday, President Trump announced a new trade agreement with the European Union, reducing tariffs to 15%, a step back from earlier threats to impose 30% tariffs on most imports. Markets are now bracing for the most intense stretch of earnings season, with key corporate results and a pivotal Federal Funds rate decision on the horizon.

U.S. and China restart Trade Talks in Stockholm

• Markets are watching closely as top U.S. and Chinese officials meet in Stockholm this week to restart formal trade negotiations. The goal is to extend the current tariff truce, set to expire on August 12, and pave the way for a potential Trump–Xi summit later this year. The discussions center on maintaining existing tariff levels, currently around 30% on Chinese imports and 10% on U.S. goods, while addressing broader issues like industrial overcapacity, market access, and fentanyl control.
• Sentiment got a boost as both sides have shown flexibility in recent weeks: the U.S. eased export restrictions on Nvidia chips, while China signaled openness to more structured talks. If successful, the Stockholm meeting could lead to a 90-day extension of the truce and potentially set the stage for a high-level deal in the fall. Traders should stay alert; any progress here could fuel further market gains, especially with earnings season and a Fed decision also in focus.

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Stocks on the move:

• Advance Auto Parts (AAP) unveiled a $1.5 billion bond issuance to enhance liquidity, but retail traders remained skeptical despite institutional backing and a 950% surge in message volume.
• C3.ai (AI) drew increased retail attention after its CEO, Thomas Siebel, announced his resignation due to health concerns, prompting a formal executive search for his replacement.
• Coursera (COUR) and Boston Beer (SAM) saw retail discussion volume skyrocket by 5,500% and 2,800% respectively, following their earnings reports, while Fitell (FTEL) retained a bullish retail outlook despite a lack of new developments.
• Centene (CNC) surprised with a Q2 net loss, even as it beat top-line expectations. Nonetheless, retail sentiment turned positive as the stock climbed over 4% intraday.

Watchlist: INTC, COIN, AAP, AI, NVDA, WM, FMX, META, TSLA

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets traded with a mixed tone on Monday as investors awaited the kickoff of high-level trade discussions between the United States and China in Stockholm, a meeting that could influence global sentiment during a pivotal stretch for financial markets By 10 a.m. local time in the region, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.49 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.85 percent and the broader Topix slipped 0.44 percent.
• U.S. equity futures pointed to a firmer open as Wall Street enters a critical week. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 171 points, or 0.38 percent. S&P 500 futures were up 0.41 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.55 percent Investors are preparing for a convergence of market catalysts, including earnings reports from major technology companies, a closely watched Federal Reserve policy decision, the August 1 trade deadline set by President Donald Trump, and a series of labor market updates, including the JOLTS report, ADP private payrolls, initial jobless claims, and the July nonfarm payrolls report on Friday

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin pushed past $119,300 on Sunday, reentering a key resistance zone between $119,000 and $120,000, where analysts at Coinank cite dense liquidation clusters that could shape short-term momentum The move follows Friday’s volatility tied to a large BTC sale and marks a continued recovery from sub-$115,000 levels 
• Meanwhile, Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm is seeking an additional $1.5 million to cover rising legal costs. In DeFi, Divine Research issued 30,000 uncollateralized USDC loans using Sam Altman’s World ID to verify borrowers, highlighting a shift toward identity-backed lending in crypto
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–123,000 | ETH: 3,000–3,800 | SOL: 200–260

Forex

• The EUR/USD pair opened the week with a modest gap higher, reaching the 1.1770 zone during the Asian session, supported by optimism surrounding a new U.S.–EU trade deal. However, upside momentum stalled as traders turned cautious ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting and key U.S. macro data, with the technical backdrop hinting at potential dip-buying interest on any pullbacks amid a softer dollar tone
• Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen sawsawed between slight gains and losses early Monday. The JPY briefly rebounded from a one-week low against the dollar, supported by lingering speculation over a possible BoJ rate hike later this year. Still, a risk-on market mood and lackluster USD price action kept the USD/JPY pair largely rangebound as traders awaited key central bank updates and broader macro signals
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1850 | USD/JPY: 140–162

Basic Materials

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed toward $64.90 in early Monday trading, supported by renewed optimism following the U.S.–EU trade deal ahead of the tariff deadline. While the upbeat sentiment underpins prices, concerns over a potential supply surplus may limit further upside. Traders are also eyeing the upcoming API crude stock report due Tuesday for near-term direction
• Gold (XAU/USD) attracted light dip-buying interest near the $3,312 area after opening the week with a mild bearish gap. A subdued U.S. Dollar provided some support, though broader risk-on sentiment and expectations for trade progress could cap the metal’s gains. Investors are largely staying on the sidelines ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, which could shape the next move in both gold and dollar markets.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,500 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

No major economic news


Earnings:

BMO (Before Market Open)

EPD               Enterprise Product Partners
FMX               Fomento Economico Mexicano

AMC (After Market Close): WELL, WM, CDNS, HIG, NUE


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!