Bulls drive S&P 500 above 6,300 22/07/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The S&P 500 advanced on Monday as investor optimism around corporate earnings outweighed concerns over recent trade developments, rising 0.14% to close at 6,305.60, marking its first finish above the 6,300 level. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.38%, and both indexes notched new all-time intraday highs earlier in the session, supported by strength in major tech stocks such as Meta Platforms and Amazon. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.04%. Verizon shares surged 4% after the company reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings, contributing to positive sentiment.
• According to Bank of America, overall second-quarter earnings are currently tracking a 5% year-over-year increase after the first week of reporting. Alphabet was a standout, climbing over 2% ahead of its quarterly results, expected to be released Wednesday after the bell. Both Alphabet and Tesla, the first among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” to report, could lift the broader market further if their results exceed Wall Street expectations.

GM Q2 Results: Tariffs and EVs in focus

• General Motors will report second-quarter earnings Tuesday morning, as investors monitor the impact of Trump’s auto tariffs and potential updates to full-year guidance. In May, GM lowered its 2025 outlook, projecting a $4–5 billion hit from tariffs, though it expects to offset at least 30% of related costs. Analysts anticipate adjusted EPS of $2.44 and revenue of $46.4 billion, reflecting year-over-year declines of 20.3% and 3.3%, respectively. Full-year guidance now forecasts $10–$ 12.5 billion in adjusted EBIT, down from $13.7–$ 15.7 billion previously.
• Attention will also focus on GM’s EV strategy after Trump’s tax bill ends EV purchase credits after September 30. Analysts predict that this could either delay new EV launches or accelerate sales in the near term. GM, originally aiming for an all-electric (EV) lineup by 2035, now ties its future plans to actual consumer demand. To counter tariff pressures, GM announced $4 billion in new U.S. investments, shifting some production from Mexico to American plants. The stock is rated as overweight, with a price target of $56.

Stocks on the move:

• Block (SQ): The fintech company’s shares rallied 8% as it prepares to enter the S&P 500 before the July 23 market open, replacing Hess after its acquisition by Chevron.
• Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR): The biotech stock declined nearly 12%, extending its sharp drop from the previous day, echoing the losses seen in Sarepta Therapeutics.
• SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG): Shares of the solar solutions firm soared 8% after Susquehanna raised its price target to $26. However, the solar industry faces significant challenges as President Trump pushes to eliminate federal incentives.
• Dollar Tree (DLTR): The discount retailer’s stock climbed 2.2% following an upgrade to overweight from equal weight at Barclays, where analysts anticipate a clearer growth trajectory.

Watchlist: GOOGL, TSLA, PM, DHR, DHI, NOC, LMT, KO

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Tuesday, with Japanese stocks opening higher despite the ruling coalition losing its majority in the upper house over the weekend. Investors are also evaluating corporate earnings strength in the U.S. amid ongoing tariff concerns, following the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's overnight record highs. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up 0.28%, while China’s CSI 300 gained 0.13%.
• In the U.S., stock futures showed little movement early Tuesday. Dow Jones futures rose 35 points (0.08%), while S&P 500 futures dipped 0.01% and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.08%. Earnings reports from Philip Morris International (PM), Coca-Cola (KO), and Lockheed Martin (LMT) are due Tuesday, alongside remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at a Washington event.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin traded between $117,932 and $118,185 over the past hour on Monday, July 21, 2025, with a market capitalization of $2.36 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $46.19 billion. Price movement ranged from an intraday low of $116,779 to a high of $119,523, indicating consolidation within an ongoing bullish trend. As Bitcoin works to solidify its recent gains, attention is shifting toward alternative cryptocurrencies, also known as altcoins.
• Ether (ETH) at $3,678 and XRP (XRP) at $3.45 led gains last week, fueling speculation that a broader “altseason” may soon emerge.
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–123,000 | ETH: 3,000–3,800 | SOL: 200–260

Forex

• USD/JPY trades stronger near 147.55 in Tuesday’s Asian session, as the Japanese Yen softens amid political uncertainty following Japan’s ruling coalition’s upper house election loss. Markets are also focused on upcoming US-Japan trade talks for further cues.
• Meanwhile, EUR/USD holds firm around 1.1700 after Monday’s rebound, supported by a weaker US Dollar as US-EU trade tensions intensify. President Trump’s push to raise tariffs on EU imports from 10% to 15–20% adds pressure, though both the ECB and Federal Reserve are expected to maintain steady rates at their upcoming meetings.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1850 | USD/JPY: 140–162

Basic Materials

• WTI crude oil prices slipped to around $65.65 in early Tuesday trading, pressured by renewed global supply concerns as Iraq resumed Kurdistan oil exports after a two-year halt, and EU sanctions continue to target Russian crude flows. Traders await the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly inventory report for fresh direction.
• Gold (XAU/USD) eased slightly after two sessions of gains but may find support amid persistent trade tensions, with focus on upcoming US-EU negotiations and US President Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline. Market sentiment remains cautious amid worries over the Federal Reserve’s independence following recent comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,500 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

08:30 am:  Fed Chair Powell Speaks
10:00 am:  Richmond Manufacturing Index


Earnings:

BMO (Before Market Open)
KO                Coca-Cola Company
PM                Philip Morris Intern.
RTX              RTX Corp.
DHR              Danaher Corp.
LMT               Lockheed Martin Corp.

AMC (After Market Close): SAP, TXN, ISRG


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!