CPI Report Looms, Earnings Season Kicks Off 15/07/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The S&P 500 inched higher on Monday, despite fresh tariff threats from President Donald Trump targeting additional countries over the weekend. Losses remained limited as traders bet those tariffs might eventually be scaled back, while attention shifted to a packed second-quarter earnings week. The S&P 500 gained 0.14%, finishing at 6,268.56, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.27% to 20,640.33. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 88.14 points, or 0.20%, closing at 44,459.65. 
• Market participants continue tracking developments on the trade front after Trump announced 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports starting August 1. However, optimism over a potentially strong earnings season, beginning today with major banks, is providing support at near record levels. Traders are also focused on June's consumer price index (CPI) data due Tuesday, searching for signals on how tariffs are impacting inflation.

CPI Report Looms

• Tuesday’s CPI report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show a fresh uptick in both headline and core inflation, with the latter still hovering well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% comfort zone. Yet what’s grabbing Wall Street’s attention isn’t just the headline numbers; it’s whether Trump’s aggressive new tariffs are finally starting to seep into consumer prices, especially in vulnerable sectors like autos, apparel, and furniture, where price shifts could offer the first real evidence of tariff-driven inflation.
• Economists are forecasting a 0.3% monthly rise in both headline and core CPI, though Goldman Sachs stands on the cautious side, predicting just a 0.2% core increase, citing lingering weakness in used car prices.  For the Federal Reserve, this report carries extra weight. A hotter-than-expected print could further delay the rate cuts traders have been counting on, as policymakers grow wary of cutting too soon amid signs of tariff-fueled price spikes.  Above that, this CPI reading won’t just measure inflation; it may reveal whether tariffs are quietly shifting the landscape of U.S. consumer prices.

Stocks on the move:

• Autodesk (ADSK): Shares of the design software firm climbed 5% after Bloomberg News reported it had abandoned a potential acquisition of PTC (PTC), according to sources familiar with the matter.
• Fastenal (FAST): The industrial supplies provider advanced 4% after posting second-quarter earnings of 29 cents per share, exceeding the 28 cents expected by analysts surveyed by FactSet.
• PayPal (PYPL): The fintech stock gained over 3% as analysts largely dismissed concerns from a Bloomberg News report suggesting JPMorgan (JPM) plans to introduce fees for access to customer banking data.
• Rivian Automotive (RIVN): Shares of the electric vehicle maker declined 2% after Guggenheim downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, citing weaker long-term demand prospects for its R2 and R3 models.

Watchlist: JPM, C, WFC, STT, ERIC, NVDA, ORCL, COIN

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets mostly advanced on Tuesday after China’s Q2 GDP growth came in at 5.2%, slightly beating the 5.1% forecast but slowing from 5.4% in Q1, according to official data. As of mid-morning, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 1.12%, the CSI 300 (CSI300) edged up 0.38%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 (N225) was flat and the Topix (TOPX) gained 0.32%.
• Meanwhile, U.S. futures were little changed Monday night after Wall Street’s positive session. Dow futures (YM=F) slipped 30 points (-0.07%), while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) each ticked down around 0.1%, as investors brace for major bank earnings and critical CPI inflation data due this week.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin soared past $123K early Monday before pulling back below $121K. Yet, its market value has skyrocketed to nearly $2.4 trillion, making it the fifth most valuable asset globally, now surpassing both Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Meanwhile, Ripple’s CEO is calling on U.S. lawmakers to fast-track crypto regulations, arguing that clear rules are crucial to unlocking the sector’s full growth potential.
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–123,000 | ETH: 2,000–3,100 | SOL: 140–220

Forex

• EUR/USD holds steady near 1.1670, trading quietly below 1.1700 as investors await fresh signals from US-EU trade talks and today’s key US CPI inflation report. The Euro remains under pressure, with the EU preparing possible countermeasures if no trade agreement with the US is reached.
• The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles near a three-week low, weighed down by persistent trade tensions, reduced bets on BoJ rate hikes, and domestic political uncertainty. The USD/JPY pair remains supported as traders await the inflation data for a clearer market catalyst.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1850 | USD/JPY: 140–162

Basic Materials

• WTI crude oil continues to decline for a second straight session, hovering near $65.80 during European trading on Tuesday. Prices are testing immediate support at the 50-day EMA of $65.65, while the 14-day RSI stays below 50, signaling ongoing bearish momentum. On the upside, the 9-day EMA at $66.39 could act as a resistance level, with the price still consolidating within a rectangular range pattern.
• Meanwhile, gold (XAU/USD) is regaining strength, supported by a slight pullback in the US dollar from recent multi-week highs. Lingering trade uncertainties are adding to the safe-haven appeal of gold, although reduced expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts may limit upside potential. Traders are focused on the upcoming US CPI report, which could determine gold’s next major move.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,500 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

08:30 am: USD Core CPI, CPI
08:30 am: USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
12:45 pm: USD FOMC Member Barr Speaks
01:00 pm: USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
 

Earnings:

BMO (Before Market Open)
JPM            JP Morgan Chase & Co
WFC           Wells Fargo & Comp.
BLK             BlackRock Inc.
C                 Citigroup Inc.
BK               The Bank of NY Mellon
STT             State Street Corp.
ERIC            Ericsson
 
AMC (After Market Close): JBHT, OMC


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!