Meta’s AI ambitions just got real 01/07/2025

HOT stories for today


 

US market wrap:

• Stocks pushed higher Monday, led by renewed momentum in tech and financials. The S&P 500 climbed 0.62% to close at a new record of 6,211, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.85%. The Dow added 0.44%, or 194 points, and the Russell 2000 advanced 0.26%.
• The rally was supported by continued optimism around Q2 earnings and a benign inflation backdrop. Investors shrugged off weaker-than-expected manufacturing data, instead focusing on falling bond yields and upbeat corporate commentary as they headed into the July 4th holiday-shortened week. Quarter-end positioning also played a role, as institutional flows shifted to a risk-on stance. Market breadth continued to improve, a sign that buying is broadening beyond just mega-cap names. Now, all eyes are on Thursday's jobs report and the development of trade talks.

Meta’s AI ambitions just got real

• Meta (META) hit a fresh all-time high Monday after CEO Mark Zuckerberg outlined the company’s aggressive AI roadmap. Speaking at a developer event, he revealed new advancements in open-source LLMs and integration across Meta’s apps, positioning the company as a major force in consumer AI. The stock gained 2.3%, bringing its year-to-date gains to over 58%. Analysts praised Meta’s balance of AI ambition with monetization focus, citing its partnerships, GPU investments, and move into custom silicon.
• The company also hinted at further expansion into enterprise AI solutions, potentially challenging rivals in productivity and business services. Wall Street sees Meta’s AI strategy as a key differentiator in the second half of the year. The company’s VR division is also set to roll out new hardware this fall, adding fuel to an already hot growth narrative.

Stocks on the move:
 

• Robinhood (HOOD): The trading platform’s stock surged 10%, reaching a fresh 52-week peak. The rally followed the launch of several crypto-related features, including tokenized U.S. equities and ETFs for European clients, as well as the introduction of crypto-staking services in the U.S.
• Cava Group (CAVA): Shares of the Mediterranean-style fast casual chain jumped 9% to kick off the week. While no specific trigger was identified, the move comes amid a broader rebound attempt. The stock remains down 25% year-to-date and 8% over the past 12 months.
• Oracle (ORCL): The software giant climbed nearly 5% after disclosing in an SEC 8-K filing that it signed several major cloud contracts, one of which is projected to bring in over $30 billion in annual revenue starting fiscal year 2028. Stifel also upgraded the stock to a "Buy" rating.
• Moderna (MRNA): Shares advanced 2% after the biotech firm reported promising results from a late-stage trial of its flu vaccine candidate. The positive outcome strengthens the case for a standalone flu shot and a future combo with its Covid vaccine.

Watchlist: META, PLTR, HOOD, ORCL, HPE, NVDA, AMD, TSLA, MSFT

Today’s action

• Asian equities posted modest gains as global risk appetite held up into July. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.42%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.31%, led by gains in financials. Chinese manufacturing PMI came in slightly below expectations, but markets brushed it off.
• U.S. futures were flat early Tuesday. S&P 500 futures edged up 0.12%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.18%. Treasury yields ticked lower, and crude hovered near $69 ahead of OPEC’s monthly meeting. Traders are balancing optimism with caution as the macro data calendar heats up. Positioning into the July 4th holiday could increase intraday volatility.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin traded flat near $107,400, consolidating recent gains as traders await macro catalysts. Ethereum held steady around $2,460, while altcoins like Solana and Avalanche saw minor pullbacks. Sentiment in crypto remains neutral. While ETF inflows are providing some support, volumes have cooled ahead of the U.S. holiday break.
• Bitcoin dominance has started rising again, suggesting a temporary rotation back into large caps. Technical levels at $109,000 (resistance) and $104,000 (support) continue to guide near-term price action.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99,000–112,000, Ethereum: 1,500–2,800, Solana: 80–183

Forex

• The Japanese Yen strengthened after the BoJ’s Tankan Survey showed improved business sentiment, boosting rate hike expectations. Stalled U.S.-Japan trade talks and a risk-on mood also pressured the dollar, though Fed-BoJ divergence may limit further downside.

• The euro edged up to 1.1790 as the dollar weakened on trade uncertainty and U.S. fiscal concerns. German inflation slowed to 2.0%, with markets eyeing Eurozone HICP and U.S. ISM data for direction.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700–1.1650, USD/JPY: 140–151

Basic Materials

• Oil steadied near $69.10 following OPEC+ signals of potential supply tightening in Q3. The group’s upcoming July meeting could result in further output restraint to support prices through summer demand season.
• Gold traded just below $3,400 amid declining real yields and robust central bank buying. A breakout above $3,420 remains in play if U.S. labor data supports a dovish Fed tone later this week. Traders noted increased hedge fund positioning in both assets last week. This could amplify moves if economic data breaks consensus.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2,600–3,500, US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Key Economic Events Today (EST):

09:30 am: USD FED Chair Powell Speaks
09:45 am: USD Final Manufacturing PMI
09:45 am: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices
10:00 am: USD JOLTS Job Openings
 

Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open):
MSM         MSC Industrial Direct Comp.
AMC (After Market Close): STZ, GBX

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!