S&P record meets Trump risk 30/06/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• U.S. stocks notched fresh all-time highs on Friday but the session wasn’t without turbulence. The S&P 500 initially rallied 0.60%, only to give back most gains by mid-session. However, a late rebound in the final hour pushed the index to a record close at 6,173, up 0.5%. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.34%, the Dow gained 0.94%, while the Russell 2000 barely held onto its gains.
•  A tentative Senate tax bill deal and last-minute calls from Canada’s Business Council to scrap a proposed tax may have supported sentiment into the close. Energy and financials led the gains, while tech cooled slightly after a strong week. Despite intraday volatility, investor appetite remained firm as the quarter drew to a close. The focus now shifts to this week’s Fed commentary, jobs data, and early earnings signals for the second quarter.

S&P record meets Trump risk

• Friday’s rally took the S&P 500 to a fresh intraday high, but political headlines quickly cooled the mood. Just hours after the print of softer-than-expected inflation data, former President Trump delivered a speech that raised market eyebrows. He criticized current trade agreements, hinted at rolling back international deals, and floated a more protectionist stance on U.S. industry. Some analysts saw the remarks as a potential preview of market-shaking policy shifts should he return to the White House.
• Adding to the tension, leaked reports suggested a draft framework for new tariffs aimed at key Asian exporters a move that could trigger retaliatory action and strain corporate earnings outlooks. While the Nasdaq 100 still closed the week with a substantial 2% gain, supported by AI and chip stocks, traders are growing wary of political volatility overtaking economic tailwinds. The week ahead will reveal whether investors are willing to keep chasing highs, or if increasing macro and geopolitical noise start to curb risk appetite.

Stocks on the move:

• Cyngn (CYN): Shares surged 20.1% Friday, up more than 300% for the week, after showcasing its autonomous vehicle system powered by Nvidia’s Isaac robotics platform. Nvidia confirmed Cyngn as an official robotics partner at Automatica 2025, fueling intense retail interest.
• QuantumScape (QS): Shares slipped 13.5% despite a technical milestone for its solid-state battery “Cobra” separator, which boasts 25× improved temperature control. Volatility remains elevated on future commercialization risk.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB): Gained 17% this week, closing at a record high after securing its first-ever contract with the European Space Agency to deploy LEO navigation satellites.
• BigBear.ai (BBAI): Climbed 0.7% Friday, capping a 45% weekly surge. The company announced a biometric security deal to roll out AI ID verification at major U.S. airports and landed two additional DoD contracts in 2025.
• Concentrix (CNXC): Fell 9% following a Q2 earnings miss. Revenue beat expectations, but margins and EPS guidance came in soft.

Watchlist: AAPL, NVDA, BA, TSLA, MSFT, AMD, META, QS

Today’s action

• Asian markets edged higher Monday as global investors reacted to Friday’s U.S. data and looked ahead to a new month of catalysts. Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.61%, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.42%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.31%, supported by tech strength. 
• U.S. stock futures were flat to slightly green. Dow futures were up 40 points, S&P 500 futures rose 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.25%. Oil held around $69, and treasury yields ticked lower in early trade. With the second half of the year underway, focus shifts to Friday’s June jobs report and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. A shortened U.S. trading week and holiday liquidity could heighten volatility.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin held steady near $107,000 over the weekend, with little movement following Friday’s macro data. The digital asset continues to consolidate above key support as traders await fresh catalysts. Ethereum (ETH) traded near $2,455, while altcoins such as Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and XRP saw minor gains of 1–2%. 
• Analysts say crypto markets are stabilizing, with ETF inflows providing a base of support despite macro uncertainty. Technical resistance for BTC remains near $109,000, while support sits at $104,000. A break in either direction could define the week’s trading tone.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99,000–112,000, Ethereum: 1500–2800, Solana: 80–183

Forex

• EUR/USD hovered near 1.1670 on Monday as the dollar remained under mild pressure after Friday’s PCE inflation report confirmed a cooling trend. The euro gained traction as European consumer sentiment showed an unexpected uptick for June, hinting at resilience across the eurozone.
• USD/JPY traded around 146.30. While the yen saw modest strength, BoJ watchers flagged an important development: Japan’s ruling coalition is reportedly debating new measures to combat imported inflation, a move that could pressure the yen further if stimulus expands. With Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s U.S. jobs report ahead, FX markets are primed for sharper moves depending on central bank tone and labor data.Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700–1.1650, USD/JPY: 140–151

Basic Materials

• Oil prices traded near $68.80 Monday morning after recovering slightly from recent multi-week lows. The rebound follows reports that OPEC+ may consider deeper output cuts in Q3 if demand falters. WTI remains vulnerable, but short covering and positioning for the July 4th holiday may provide short-term support.
• Gold held firm near $3,395, with renewed demand from central banks underpinning sentiment. Reports from the World Gold Council showed record Q2 purchases by emerging-market central banks, notably Turkey and India. With real yields declining, gold bulls are eyeing a potential breakout above $3,420 if U.S. data continues to favor dovish policy expectations.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600–3500, US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
09:45 am: USD Chicago PMI
10:00 am: USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
01:00 pm: USD FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks 

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens):
WDS         Woodside Energy
AMC (After the US Market closes): PRGS
 

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!